News of War Staff Writer
According to the latest assessment by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a potential large-scale conventional conflict with NATO. While not imminent, the timeline for such a conflict may be shorter than initially posited by some Western analysts.
The report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent meeting with leaders of the Russian State Duma factions, where he emphasised the importance of developing the Russian economy and expanding social programs. Putin also criticised the Russian "elite" and urged the appointment of individuals based on skill and competence. ISW assesses that these moves are likely aimed at stabilising Russia's long-term financial position to support increased military spending.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen have both expressed concerns about Russia's potential to attack a NATO country within the next three to five years. The timeline for the reconstitution of Russia's conventional military threat heavily depends on the financial resources Putin is willing to allocate to military efforts.
The Russian military is simultaneously undertaking structural reforms to support the ongoing war in Ukraine while expanding its conventional capabilities for a potential future conflict with NATO. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently announced the formation of the "Dnepr River Flotilla" and plans to create additional combined arms armies, divisions, and brigades by the end of 2024. However, ISW assesses that Russia currently lacks the necessary manpower, military infrastructure, and training capacity to properly staff these new formations in the immediate to medium term.
The report also highlights the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate's (GUR) recent drone strike against a Russian air base in Saratov Oblast. Ukrainian drone strikes have reportedly disrupted a significant portion of Russia's oil refining capacity, which could impact Russia's ability to balance increased defence spending with social commitments.
Additionally, ISW notes that Kremlin-affiliated actors in the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia are invoking narratives similar to those used by Russia in the years leading up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This is likely part of the Kremlin's broader hybrid efforts to destabilise Moldova.
The report concludes by confirming recent Russian advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City, and the ongoing training of drone operators by the Russian military for operations in Ukraine.